Post after post, article after article... People think OAK has the best chance to unseat NE this season. So let's discuss that...
I've said many times here that we were quite a bit worse than our 12-4 record made things look. Why? Because I saw us get lucky too many times to truly believe we were contenders, long before Carr's injury.
So the dickheads here will scoff at me and tell me it's the wins that count. NOT when you're projecting what a team will do for a season, it's not. You have to look at HOW we won to get a really good picture of it. I'll start my point with, as usual, a highly pertinent FACT. And here it is:
Among the 10 teams that had double-digit regular season wins in 2016, we had the THIRD WORST point differential, behind only NYG(24) and MIA(-17). Our PD was 31. I can tell you, that's usually not good enough to make the playoffs. By way of contrast, NE's PD was 191. Atlanta's was 134. For the Freddies and 790s on this board - meaning full-blown morons - that means that we saw the TWO teams with the TWO highest regular-season PDs go to the SB. And the team that was #1 in PD won it. I find that fascinating as hell.
That's one fact. In and of itself it's just interesting, not incredibly compelling. So STFU, Freddie, because I ain't done. I am a master of factual analysis and when I want to make a point that's going to piss people off, I will bury you in it. So let's look at some specific games, shall we?
Start w the CAR win.
- We were 8 points behind with 8:37 left in the game (and we needed a Mack INT return for a TD even to get there - lucky #1)
- Carr threw a TD pass. Of course, we needed a 2-point conversion just to tie the game (lucky #2).
- Tie game, and our defense holds, mainly because of a holding penalty (lucky #3) and conservative play calling.
- On the first play of our next series Carr gets sacked -4 yds. Yet he uses his magic to get in range for Seabass, now it's 35-32.
- Cam has a timeout and 1:45 to work with. He drives his team to the Raiders 44 before Mack ends it w a strip sack (lucky #4).
LUCKY WIN. Everything bounced our way, and Khalil Mack played out of his motherfucking mind. He won that game for us.
Let's move on to the NO win.
- One of our TDs in this game came from a 75-yd Jalen Richard TD rum. (lucky #1)
- At one point, NO scored THREE unanswered TDs on us.
- We were down by 7 points with :47 left on the clock when Derek threw a TD to Seth.
- During that series, we converted on 4th down via PENALTY. (lucky #2)
- We went for the win with a 2-pt conversion and Crab came down w the pass (lucky #3)
- We had to overcome 14 penalties for 141 yds to win this one. Unheard of. (lucky #4)
- Our D was a sieve as Mack chose not to show up for the game (4 tk)
- On his final series Brees drives his team to the Raiders 43 with :05 left. We win when they miss a long FG. (lucky #5)
LUCKY WIN.
Not enough for ya?
How about the BAL win?
- This time we had 12 penalties for 93 yds. Luckily, BAL had 10 penalties for 105 yds. (lucky #1)
- In the end We posted 261 total yds to their 412. (lucky #2)
------ They had 130 rushing yds, we had 62.
-------We had 199 pass yds, they had 282.
- We gained only 13 first downs to their 25. (lucky #3)
- With 6:27 left, Flacco gashed the shit out of us with a 52-yd TD pass to Smith.
- Late in the 4th BAL scored back-to-back TDs when Jalen Richards fumbled at our own 17. (lucky #3)
- We were down by 6 points with 2:12 left on the clock when Derek pitched a 23-yd TD and the extra point put us up 1. (lucky #4)
- On BAL's final drive, Reggie Nelson had 2 PDs within a 10-second span to stop Flacco at mid-field and secure a 1-point win for us. (lucky #5)
LUCKY fucking win. We should have lost this one.
Not enough for you?
Well, we only beat SD the first time because the idiots had a busted FG attempt at our 18-yd-line.
How about the TB game?
- We had to win in OT, even though they didn't have Doug Martin.
- WE COMMITTED 23 PENALTIES FOR -200 YDS IN THAT GAME!!! What the FUCK??
- It went back and forth in OT. On TB's final 3 series, somehow our shit defense held them to THREE straight 3-and-outs. A fucking miracle.
- Carr threw a 43-yd TD to Roberts.
VERY Lucky. Derek Carr had the best game of his career in that win, btw. 40/59-513-4-0
It is BY NO MEANS a stretch to say we could have been 7-9. And IMO it's a fair statement to say that last year we were more like a 9-7 team than a 12-4 team. We fucking ABSOLUTELY should have lost to BAL, NO and TB.