Everyone is in who matters. My analysis.

[DeadRinger]

It's a long post, my congratulations if you read the whole thing...

DE Ferrell... IMMEDIATE STARTER and hands-down our best d-lineman.
RB Josh Jacobs... IMMEDIATE STARTER and hands-down our best back.
SS John Abram... IMMEDIATE STARTER as we move from a traditional 4-3 to more of a base Big Nickel defense.
CB Trayvon Mullen... Could displace Worley as CB2 coming out of training camp.
DE Maxx Crosby... MAJOR project, potential practice squad guy.
CB Isaiah Johnson... Developmental CB, soon to be our CB3, possibly next season.
TE Foster Moreau
WR Hunter Renfro... potential immediate starter in the slot

We essentially remade our entire d-backfield for some reason. I think Isaiah Johnson is more than just a ST guy, he'll become the real deal at some point. GREAT size/speed guy but needs time to develop. A very good value pick at a position where we had NO need whatsoever. In 2 years we're going to have 3 or 4 really good CBs.

I look at Maxx Crosby about the same way I look at James Cowser. A ST or PS guy until proven different. I give him about a 35% chance of doing anything worthwhile. Most likely a wasted pick. Should have gone with Mack Wilson here, we needed more speed at the LB spot.

Moreau has it made, simply because we don't have shit at TE. People keep mentioning Waller's name, I have no idea why. The guy is nobody and will be cut. Moreau will be given every chance to develop as a receiver, and will be pushed HARD to do so. By all accounts he is a natural blocker, instinctive and almost effortless at it. He might even push Lee to become our primary blocking TE this season.

Given these picks, and assuming no further FA action (I DO think we'll have at least 1 more signing or trade), I see some rebuilt units:


CBs: Conley | Worley | Mullen | Nelson | Johnson | Lawson

Safeties: Joyner | Abram | Joseph | Harris

We're going to need 10 DBs for depth and STs as we transition to the Big Nickel, where we might normally only keep 9. We already extended Harris and we're picking up Joseph's 5th year option, those guys aren't going anywhere. We gave CB Lawson a $750k signing bonus, which is a LOT more than we gave to either of the 2 Ss we signed in FA, so that means we're going to keep an extra CB instead of an extra S.


DTs: Hurst | Hankins | Ellis | Hall

DEs: Ferrell | Key | Mauro | Crosby

Mauro got a $400k signing bonus, and Mayowa got a $250k bonus so while Mauro is not a lock between the two, he has the edge. We're going to keep Crosby instead of Mayowa and use him on STs, try to transform his body and technique, coach him up. Mayowa might stick on STs but I'm looking at units here.


TEs: Wilson | Lee | Moreau

I think Luke can be more of a presence in the passing game. He has shown flashes earlier in his career, but really hasn't been given a chance over the last few seasons. We'll see what happens. It would be great to see Moreau step up and show everyone that he was simply under-utilized at LSU. We should REALLY draft Nauta if he's still there in the 7th, or sign him as UDFA.


WRs: Brown | Williams | Renfro | Ateman | Grant | Harris

We might ditch Harris and go with Pierson-El as our return man this year. He's younger and extremely cheap.

Notice I'm listing Renfro as WR3 out of the gate. The fact that Renfro is instantly a critical piece in this unit is a BAD thing. He shouldn't have to be, but MayDen has failed to improve on our lack of depth at the position, bizarrely fixating on DB where we were actually somewhat comfortably situated.

JJ FUCKIN Nelson isn't going to make the team. It's too late for him to go from "unconvincing deep threat" to "reliable receiver." After 4 years, his career reception rate is 45%. As a reference point, Seth Roberts' career rate is 60%. Get the drift?

Now, that 45% rate is reflective of the fact that he has 4.3 speed, and they try to get him deep more often than other WRs, which obviously, are lower-percentage passes. His 17.8 yds/catch is indicative of that fact. But Tyrell Williams is also a burner, also a guy who goes deep a lot, with a 16.3-yd average, and his catch rate is 60%.

So the bottom line is that a guy with a 45% catch rate after 4 seasons should NOT be in the NFL. And Jon Gruden is going to watch him drop his own ass so many times, he's going to scream and curse until he tells him to pack it in and GTFO.

Ateman can't catch either, but at least he still has a chance to improve. And given our lack of good receivers after Renfro, he'll stick easily.

[piratepride]

I read the whole thing and it's pretty spot on. While I like Lee Smith, he gets way too much penalties. He may be gone sooner than we all think with Moreau in the fold.
Kyle Rudolph is for sale, maybe worth a m8d to late pick in 2020?
Maxx Crosby as you mentioned will be a project, he may want to room up with Grudens son Duece all year and try again in Vegas. Or at the very least, maybe stick around on the practice squad.
I didn't think our secondary was "scaring " anyone to steal Mark Davis' and needed some fresh talent to help Conley. We all know Nelson was trash and should have been let go last season.
Like Freddie said, I don't expect playoffs but a solid competitive season will be more realistic.
If we hit on next years draft and keep adding peices for Carr we'll be contenders for years to come.

[DeadRinger]

I read the whole thing and it's pretty spot on. While I like Lee Smith, he gets way too much penalties. He may be gone sooner than we all think with Moreau in the fold.
Kyle Rudolph is for sale, maybe worth a m8d to late pick in 2020?
Maxx Crosby as you mentioned will be a project, he may want to room up with Grudens son Duece all year and try again in Vegas. Or at the very least, maybe stick around on the practice squad.
I didn't think our secondary was "scaring " anyone to steal Mark Davis' and needed some fresh talent to help Conley. We all know Nelson was trash and should have been let go last season.
Like Freddie said, I don't expect playoffs but a solid competitive season will be more realistic.
If we hit on next years draft and keep adding peices for Carr we'll be contenders for years to come.

Yeah, we need these new guys to get some time under their belts.

BUT....

Last I saw we had over $20M in cap space.

So, if MayDen truly wants to make a mark and head into Vegas like a monster,

Trade one of our 2020 first-rounders for Jadeveon Clowney.

Fuckin BOOM!!

[DeadRinger]

Jesus Christ, the fucking Lions took Hockenson AND Nauta!! What the FUCK?

[FreddieB25]

We shall see. On paper we're much improved. It's all about what shows up on the field every Sunday.

[silver & black]

I read all of it..... great analysis. But........... I'm not sure Clowney is all that. I don't think he's panned out to be what he was projected to be.

[DeadRinger]

I read all of it..... great analysis. But........... I'm not sure Clowney is all that. I don't think he's panned out to be what he was projected to be.

I'll agree and then I'll disagree.. I agree he hasn't lived up to his hype, which is why I think we can get him for a single 1st round pick.

I also don't like his early injury history, those kinds of things can nag at you over time.

BUT...

He has played in 31 of 32 regular season games over the last 2 years with 19 sacks.

And I will make this point, which i think is a HUGE deal. Those morons in HOU are playing him at LB. They even put him at fuckin MLB at times, it's ridiculous. This kid is NOT like Mack, he's not that kind of freak. He's not like JJ Watt, he doesn't have that kind of versatility.

Clowney is a 1-trick pony, but he's a master at that 1 trick, if you'll let him do just that 1 thing. If we put his hand on the ground, let him add a little weight, pin his ears back, the way he's SUPPOSED to play, I think he'd take a step forward and be a 15-17 sack guy. The guy's 6'5", he can get up to 265, 270 easily and dominate with both speed and power off the edge.

I look around the league and see guys getting used wrong all the time. I honestly think that's one of the reasons some of these guys have contract disputes. I think Clowney is TRYING to get traded to another team, so he can get into a a real end position and do what he does best.

You don't drop Jadeveon Clowney into coverage. You don't send Jadeveon Clowney flying into gaps to run plug. You put him on the edge, wind him up and let him destroy the offensive backfield.

He's being mis-used and he's still a 10-sack guy. He's still only 26. I'd trade a 1st for him all day long, let him do what he does best and go to town.

[DeadRinger]

I bet he'd jump at the chance to come here and rush the QB for this team,

Knowing he'd be a real DE.

With all the FA moves we've made showing how serious we are and that the idiocy is gone.

Playing with young up-and-comers like Ferrell, Key and Hurst.

Going into Vegas with all the hype and keeping the tax money.

Playing for Guenther knowing some of the badasses he has coached up in the past.

[FreddieB25]

Hopefully with this young talent on defense we won't need Clowney and dump a 1st rounder for him. I see a big name or two coming to Vegas in 2020 just to make a bigger splash and gives us a couple branded players going into that Vegas market. That town is all about entertainment and flash and I'm sure we'll market the Raider brand accordingly. JUST DON'T CHANGE THE UNIFORM OR LOGO WHATEVER THEY DO!!! IT'S A SPORTS CLASSIC!!!

[DeadRinger]

Mark isn’t dumb enough to change the logo.

Is he?

I guess about 10 yrs ago I read it was the most recognizable logo in all of sports, globally.